AIA Sees Steady, but Moderating, Path Ahead for Construction
July 26, 2016
Construction spending will continue to expand over the next year-and-a-half, but at a more “tempered” pace than before, according to the American Institute of Architects’ semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast.
“Healthy job growth, strong consumer confidence and low interest rates are several positive factors in the economy, which will allow some of the pent-up demand from the last downturn to go forward,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “But at the same time, the slowing in the overall economy could extend to the construction industry a bit – with the biggest drop off expected in the industrial facility sector over the next year and a half.”
Baker noted that other national and international factors may also affect the forecast: weak U.S. manufacturing output, struggling economies in some key foreign markets, the Brexit vote, and “typical uncertainty” leading up to a U.S. presidential election.
The foecast predicted that overall nonresidential building will increase by 5.8 percent in 2016 and 5.6 percent in 2017.
The Consensus Construction Forecast is a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, conducted every six months by the AIA.
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